Collapses
result in considerable cultural loss and there is no reason to think
that the coming one will be an exception. In fact it is likely that
the losses, in this domain like in many others, will be larger than
most. To begin with, we have more to loose. Fossil fuels have enabled
us to both feed and educate more people than at any other time in
history. More than two millions books are published world-wide every
single year. This is far beyond the capacity of a post-peak,
presumably agrarian, society to conserve. This is still more true of
movies or television films, which become useless once you have lost
the capacity to rerun them. Besides, our storage media have a very
limited lifespan and can only be accessed with energy-intensive
devices we are very likely to lose during the coming energy descent.
Where
medieval books are still readable after a century, our CDs, DVDs and
hard drives won’t survive ours and even if they do, they will be as
readable for our deindustrial descendants as an eight tracks
cartridge or a betamax tape is for the average westerner. When we
realize this, our first reaction is to follow the tracks of
Saint-Leibowitz and try to preserve as much as we can of our
civilization’s cultural heritage.
This
is definitely a worthy goal and some parts of our culture need to be
salvaged and transmitted if we want future civilizations to be more
successful than our own. As the Archdruid stated, ours is the first
technological civilization in history. Others will come and we must
make sure they are in position to build upon the foundations we have
laid.
Yet,
this strategy of transmission can disastrously backfire. Our society
is doomed to collapse because of its reliance on non-renewable
resources but also because, despite being aware of the situation, it
has chosen to ignore it. The Meadows Report was published in 1972,
when we still had a chance to establish a sustainable technological
civilization without paying too high a price. There are deep cultural
reasons for that, among which our obsession with “progress” and
the dominance of what we call liberalism in Europe, that is the
neutrality of the states toward values.
As
the French philosopher Jean-Claude Michéa convincingly argued,
liberalism emerged from the XVIth and XVIIth
century religious wars in Europe. Having lived through a period of
highly disruptive religious wars. In a civilization where religion
held so central a place, such wars demanded an intellectual response
lest they tear apart the very fabric of the society.
This
response was liberalism, that is the idea that the state was to be
neutral not only toward religions but also toward values. Of course,
disestablishing organized religions was a good thing, as was the
creation of a private sphere, which allows people to pursue their own
interests without interference from the state. The logic of
liberalism, however, Michea argues, leads to the destruction of the
very notion of common values. Since all values are private and that
the community represented by the state shouldn’t favor any of them,
the only thing which keeps the society together is the relentless
pursuit of wealth and the merchant sphere ultimately invades all
other social spheres. Besides, since there is no common conception of
the common good, conflicts are decided through appeals to emotion,
hence the “oppression Olympics” and the shameless exhibitionism
which characterize today’s politics – the Femens are a case in
point but they are hardly alone.
The
availability of cheap and abundant fossil fuels definitely helped the
development of the progress myth and the slow destruction of
communities and of what Orwell called Common Decency. It made
possible for the progress myth to fulfill its promises, at least for
a time, which was quite an advantage over, say, traditional
Christianity. The enlightenment, however, is older, by at least a
century than the Industrial revolution and without it the mythology
of progress would not have taken hold and the transition to a
sustainable civilization far easier.
Collapses
destroy the cultural capital of a civilization, relegating once
dominant ideologies to the dustbins of history, erasing whole
philosophical schools. This is sometimes unfortunate. What survived
of classical Greek culture, for instance, was mostly the product of
the aristocratic party. We know very little of the intellectual
production of the democratic party and nothing of the anti-slavery
Athenian movement postulated by Karl Popper. We know also very little
of the competitors of Christianity during the 3rd century
BC. The arguments of pagan opponents of Christianity are known only
through (probably highly biased) quotations by Christian authors and
we know still less of the many heretic opponents of early
Catholicism.
This
can also be fortunate. When at the end of Bronze Age, the Mycenian
palaces were burnt by a bunch of unknown but manifestly very angry
people, the ideology which supported the palatial system was also
destroyed, not just discredited, utterly destroyed. The palatial
economy was a kind of proto-communism in which the ruler collected
the production of the areas under his control and redistributed it to
his followers. Resources were managed by a bureaucracy of scribes and
accountants who controlled also trade and craftsmanship in a
semi-centralized manner. Such a system was not very conductive to
democracy and personal freedom. It also tended to create a lot of
outcasts – the kind of people mid-eastern texts call habiru.
When
the system was destroyed, not only physically, but also as a concept,
the autonomous village
community which emerged from the wreckage, laid the foundations of
the city-states of the classical age and
with it of the market economy and democracy. Had the palatial system
survived, nothing of the sort would have happened.
Of
course, the present economical and political arrangements are
unlikely to survive the energy descent and
the current elites will definitely be replaced by something else –
probably in a rather messy and brutal way. This does not mean,
however, that the ideological apparatus they have built to justify
their rule, will not resurface during
some renaissance. That is,
after all, what happened when the Italian scholars of the
Quattrocento rediscovered Greek and Latin authors and rejected,
admittedly only to some extend, the heritage of the Middle-Age.
As
we slide down Hubbert’s curve, we’ll have to do some ideological
triage, burying that part of our heritage which has put us into the
mess we are in, and could very well put
our descendants into deep troubles should
they get seduced by them.
The
very idea of ideological triage will probably sound shocking, if not
downright offensive to the
average American. Europeans
tend to be less sanguine, however. We certainly value freedom of
expression and consider the free confrontation of ideas as
indispensable to the well-being of a decent society. We have also
faced, eighty years ago,
a cancerous ideology which very nearly plunged our continent into a
new dark age. So we have a very limited tolerance toward those who
try
to revive it.
The
French government has recently banned two small far right parties
after the death of a far-left activist at the hands of a skinhead. In
many European countries, denying the reality of the Holocaust will
land you in jail and very few
of us have a problem with that.
Indeed,
John Stuart Mill, whose seminal book On Liberty,
was instrumental in establishing the modern vision of freedom, stated
that "the only purpose for which power can be
rightfully exercised over any member of a civilized community,
against his will, is to prevent harm to others."
That means that it is perfectly rightful to ban
ideas when they cause harm to
others. Please note, by the
way, that there is a difference between
harm and offense. Discrimination
against homosexuals clearly harms people. Homosexuality may offense
hardline Christians, it does not harm them in any meaningful way.
I
think it is obvious to everyone that Nazism
and its various fascist
siblings are harmful. So are
racism and homophobia, as
well as ideologies which advocate
infanticide and deny personhood to a part of humankind. It
is uncertain, however, which part of our heritage
is really harmful. While our
culture is doubtlessly cancerous, it
is far from being universally so. Our habit of treating women like
human beings is certainly worth bequeathing to our successors (but
not radical feminism), as
is our abhorrence for slavery. So are the rule of law (but
not the extension of law to the private sphere),
government by consent (but
not the trampling of common decency in the name of democracy)
and the equal dignity of all men (but
not the "ideology
of the same"),
even if those notions predate our civilization, or the concept of
representative democracy, which despite its flaws, allows for
democratic states larger than your average city-state.
If
the mythology of progress, which is at the core of the Enlightenment,
is bound to messily collapse,
some of its derivatives may
be very useful to a future civilization, and may even become a
permanent part of human nature – which in a species as ours is as
much cultural as it is natural. It
is, after all, what happened with the then radical idea that all men
are
equal in dignity. It arose from Roman imperialism, was formulated for
the first time by the Stoics and passed into Christianity then
Islam. While its implementation is still, let’s say imperfect, it
is accepted, at least in
theory, by everybody outside
the lunatic fringe.
This
handing down of the best of our heritage is not incompatible with the
burying of our worst in a
great pruning. In fact, it requires it, if we want this
best to become a part of
future cultures which will
have every reason to dislike us. Of
course, burying ideas does not mean burying those who hold them. It
means not saving them, not transmitting and copying them during the
coming long night and the
only fire we need for that is the one in our hearths. Lack
of resources and the necessity of survival will work for us in that
respect. By
simply focusing our scarcer and scarcer resources on what absolutely
needs saving, we will allow the harmful and the useless
to gently slip in the dark. We
must, however, be aware of what we do and
of why we are doing it.
The
cancerous memes
in our culture will bring us down. There
is little doubt about that, as there is little doubt that future
societies will develop their own, probably very different, cancerous
memes and
succumb to them. That is how
civilizations work. We must
however make sure that we don’t poison them with our delusions.
The
Necronomicon and The
Ultimate Resource are probably best forgotten, and
if that takes a little help...
If I have read your post correctly, your basic thesis is that declining resources will at some point in the future fail to support all aspects of our culture that are available to us now. I agree with that part of your thesis. The second part of your proposal seems to be that we will have choices about which parts of our culture we will support with our dwindling resources and which we will abandon and that we should choose wisely. Again, I agree that we should choose wisely. However, while we will be able to choose what to hang on to and what to let go of as individuals, we may not be able to choose wisely at the level of politics and industry. The choices at the level of politics and industry are made by a small subset of the larger population and are not necessarily wise. Should orderly governance and large industries collapse, individuals will make choices more or less based on instinct or past habit and the outcome of large number of individual decisions in aggregate will be unpredictable. In other words, we will not know the results of our decisions except in hindsight assuming that we will even have the luxury of hindsight.
ReplyDeleteFor the most part, we seem to make decisions based on short term goals. We choose what seems to benefit us today and tomorrow because we do not know whether it will harm us in the future. In some cases, it may take us centuries to find out that we made the wrong decision.
Well, supply side choices are certainly made by small groups, but the general population still has the power to choose and can sometimes choose in the fringe. Dune and Lord of The Ring, which stand a serious chance to survive whatever the future has in stock (that's a near-certainty for LOTR).
ReplyDeleteBesides, when the current elites will fall, they won't be replaced by anarchy, but by new elites, probably more diverse geographically and better adapted to the new circumstances. The cultural choices will then be made according to the new ideologies, which may be quite hostile to those which dominate our mental field, the same way the choices about what would survive of Roman culture was made not by stoic scholars but by Christian monks.
Besides, the great pruning will take centuries to be completed, with probably a lot of dissensus, individual choices and polemics about what should be preserved and what should not.
The result may surprise us. One more reason to be aware of what we do.