The
electoral campaign in France is nearing its end and we already know the
outcome. A few months ago, I would have said that the incumbent
president's only chance was an islamist spree killer shooting at
random in the middle of a schoolyard. The problem is that an islamist
spree killer did shoot at random in the middle of a schoolyard and
that didn't improve Nicolas Sarkozy's already minute chances of
getting reelected.
His
forced retirement won't really be a disaster for France. Even if his
probable replacement is also likely to fail, he will do so in a much
gentler way. Sarkozy wanted to be great and there is no place for
greatness in times of decline.
There
is more to this election than a rat race for an already empty power,
however.
When
General De Gaulle decided in 1961 that French presidents would henceforth be
elected by the people, and no longer by the parliament, he
wanted to reduce the influence of political parties upon the life of
the nation and create a direct relationship between the people and
its leader.
It
has been a failure.
It
would be stupid to deny that the personality of a candidate has an
influence upon the result of an election, but it has become
increasingly difficult to be elected without the support of a major
party - another layer of complexity in a society which has
accumulated an embarrassing surplus of them.
Political
parties are dizzyingly diverse, ranging from the little disciplined
American electoral machines to the totalitarian para-bureaucracies of
the so-called socialist states. They all emerged during the
nineteenth century from parliamentary factions, revolutionary more or
less secret societies or even lobbies. In Britain, the two first
parties – the Whigs and the Torries – coalesced formally in 1784
around Charles James Fox and William Pitt the Younger, respectively,
even though the ideas they represented date back to to the Glorious
Revolution and the advent of the Hanoverian dynasty.
In
the United States, the two first organized political parties, the
Federalist and Democratic-Republican parties emerged around 1792 and more or less reflected their English counterparts, as
Thomas Jefferson stated in a letter to John Wise :
Two
political Sects have arisen within the U. S. the one believing that
the executive is the branch of our government which the most needs
support; the other that like the analogous branch in the English
Government, it is already too strong for the republican parts of the
Constitution; and therefore in equivocal cases they incline to the
legislative powers: the former of these are called federalists,
sometimes aristocrats or monocrats, and sometimes tories, after the
corresponding sect in the English Government of exactly the same
definition: the latter are stiled republicans, whigs, jacobins,
anarchists, disorganizers, etc. these terms are in familiar use with
most persons.
Those
early political parties, both in America and Britain were structured
around local and national leaders, rather than around mass of
activists and party discipline was lax, to say the least. In both
countries electoral franchise was limited to a small percentage of
the population and since both countries were reasonably orderly,
there was little point in trying to control the crowds.
France,
as always, begged to differ. At the time of the French Revolution, it
was ruled by a corrupt and bankrupt absolute monarchy headed by the
weakest king in a century – a dangerous combination, at best. As a
result, France’s transition to democracy was very chaotic, to say
the least, and wasn’t completed until the fall of the Second Empire
in 1870. All French regimes from 1789 to 1871 ended in violence,
either insurrection or invasion. Fighting for change at that time
meant exactly that : shooting at rather uncooperative troopers from
behind a barricade. While France was only intermittently a real
dictatorship during this period, opposing the government was still a
dangerous business and republican meeting were banned more often than
not – which prompted radicals to start a feasting campaign, with
very long-winded toasts, a tradition which still survives in some
circles to this day.
Of
course, when both you and the Police know that the only way you can
achieve your goals is by storming the royal or imperial palace, you
are more likely to invest in conspiratorial cells and shooting skills
than in party building. As for the supporters of whatever
semi-authoritarian regime held the power at any given time, they
relied upon loose parliamentarian coalitions, old boy networks and
the continued influence of local notables.
It was
only in 1901, after the definitive victory of the republicans, that
the first classical French political party was formally established :
the Radical Party, which, by the way, was anything but radical and is
now mostly known for its attachment to secularism and its love of
feasting.
The left
followed its own way toward the establishment of organized
parties after the debacle of the Commune (the last Parisian
insurrection, crushed in 1871). The first socialist party, the
Fédération des travailleurs socialistes de France
was founded in 1878 by the Marxist Jules Guesde but split in the wake
of electoral disaster.
The
socialist movement remained divided into a collection of often rival
groups until its reunification around Jean Jaures in 1905 in the
Section française de l'Internationale ouvrière,
out of which both the French Communist Party and François Hollande's
Socialist Party latter emerged.
The
left, had no network of notables to rely upon, however. Its roots lay
in the Parisian tradition of insurrections, the nascent unions and
the work of radical intellectuals such as Marx, Proudhon or Bakunin.
Its goal was not to rule the country through parliamentary work but
to take over it by organizing the people and uniting it around a
common ideology.
This
called for a very specific kind of organization, more reminiscent of
a government than of a gentlemen's club, with a top down chain of
command and a strict party discipline. Policies were defined in
regular conventions rather than in local caucuses and elected
officials were considered mandatees of the organization rather than
notables with their own relatively independent power base.
Where,
in the Republican movement, policies were debated in local clubs and
masonic lodges – a major force in early twentieth century France –
formation (read indoctrination ) was a key element in socialist
strategy.
And
of course, it still had something of a conspiratorial mindset, an
attitude which will flourish in Lenin's Bolshevik Party.
This
model was soon hijacked by the other radical force in French
society : the revolutionary right which was beginning to replace the
old reactionary and aristocratic right, which had until then led the
fight against the heritage of the French Revolution. Born from the
unholy alliance of German Romanticism and of a few heretical sections
of the French left, this new current birthed Italian fascism and its
German monster child : National-Socialism.
For
totalitarian movements in Berlin, Roma or Moscow, mass parties, as
developed by the left, were very convenient and provided the blueprint for the
fanatical political armies which roamed Europe during the thirties
and the forties. This pattern continued long after the war in Communist
parties all over Europe. Quite often, their strategies where decided
in Moscow and local activist's only prerogatives were to implement them, to that point that
a minister could say that the Communist Party was not on the left,
but on the east.
There
was, however, another factor at work. The flow of cheap and abundant
energy that flooded our society after the industrial revolution
triggered a fantastic wave of growth and complexification in all
organizations, and political parties were no exception. As more
resources were available in the society at large, political parties
could divert more and more of them to feed their internal
bureaucracy.
At
first the rational was to get things done, or better done, by hiring
professionals often recruited among activists, and it is not absurd.
Even my own, tiny and ineffectual party, has developed a
mini-bureaucracy paid for by state subsidies (the French state grants
money to political parties in function of their electoral results),
elected officials' wages' or even public money, as elected officials
may have assistant which will be used for party business.
The
result is that sooner or later, the necessity to feed the bureaucracy
will supersede any other concern and the bureaucracy itself will
become a major player in internal politics. Of course, the bottom up
elaboration of policies through local clubs and debates could not
survive this evolution and was replaced by the interplay of
ideological factions and think tanks.
Now
the decisions about what is to be debated in electoral campaigns are made by professional politicians and small coteries of party
bureaucrats under the influence of lobbies of often dubious
representativity. The only thing the population can do is getting
interested, or not.
This is
one of the reasons why peak oil, and more generally resource issues,
played no role in the French presidential campaign, despite Jean-Marc
Jeancovici's courageous but ultimately futile appeal. Neither party
leaders nor their entourage of bureaucrats and advisers were
interested in raising them, for the same reason they were
uninterested in talking seriously about the debt. They would have had
to promise the Moon – and we already have a Larouchie for that –
or speaking hard truths to a population, which, they believe, is not
ready to hear them.
Unfortunately,
it is not going to change. Peak energy and the subsequent resource
shrinkage will reduce the amount of wealth available, but, if there
is something history teaches us, it is that those in power will use
their not inconsiderable influence to minimize the impact of a crisis
upon their own income.
Political
parties, their leaders and their bureaucrats are not the only
powerful organizations in French society, but they control most of
the political debate, which means they will do everything to ensure
the survival of their apparatus and will most probably succeed
despite the growing distrust of the population. And yes, that is
also true for our own bureaucracy, a bureaucracy I belong to, by the
way, even I happen to be on the wrong side of a factional divide.
This
is, by the way, not a conspiracy, even if there are a lot of cynics
in the political world. Politicians are great at self-delusion and
sincerely think that the party bureaucracy is indispensable to the
furthering of goals they sincerely think are good for the country. As
for party bureaucrats, they are often as dependent upon their job as
your average corporate ladder-climber. Most of them are trapped in a
career they chose by idealism long before divorce and mortgages
raised their ugly heads.
What
that means, also, is that even those who talk about participatory
democracy are very unlikely to implement it, because it would mean
renouncing their power and accepting the shrinkage of their own
income – I don't know of any group in history, which has done that.
Of
course, at some point, when peak energy will make the situation
intolerable for common people and the political establishment's
promises as hollow as a dentist's, this will disastrously backfire
and bring a strongman or another into power. We may even have a
lamppost day or two.
What
we are unlikely to have, however, is what we need : a return to a
community based democracy with a continuous dialogue between the
mandators and a mandatee, who will answer only to them, not to party bureaucrats such as myself.